Fed: Saudi Arabia real reason for US invasion of Iraq

AAP General News (Australia)
04-03-2004
Fed: Saudi Arabia real reason for US invasion of Iraq

By Max Blenkin

CANBERRA, April 3 AAP - Forget Iraq's weapons of mass destruction (WMD). The real reason
the United States invaded Iraq was Saudi Arabia, according to a US intelligence analyst.

Dr George Friedman, chairman of the United States private sector intelligence company
Stratfor, said the US had settled on WMD as a simple justification for the war and one
which it expected the public would readily accept.

Dr Friedman, in Australia on a business trip, said the US administration never wanted
to explain the complex reasons for invading Iraq, keeping them from both the public and
their closest supporters.

"That, primarily, was the fact that Saudi Arabia was facilitating the transfer of funds
to al-Qaeda, was refusing to cooperate with the US and believed in its heart of hearts
that the US would never take any action against them," he said.

Dr Friedman said the September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks on the US prompted the strategy
to hunt down al-Qaeda wherever it was to be found. But that proved exceedingly difficult.

"The US was desperate. There were no good policy choices," he said.

"Then the US turned to the question - we can't find al-Qaeda so how can we stop the
enablers of al-Qaeda."

He said those enablers, the financiers and recruiters, existed in Pakistan and Saudi Arabia.

But the Saudi government variously took the view that this wasn't true or that they
lacked the ability and strength to act, he said.

Dr Friedman said in March last year, the Saudis responded to US pressure by asking
the US to remove all its forces and bases from their territory. To their immense surprise,
the US did just that, relocating to Qatar.

He said Saudi Arabia and al-Qaeda shared a number of beliefs including that the US
could not fight and win a war in the region and was casualty averse. There was a need
to change that perception.

But close by was Iraq, the most strategically located nation in the Middle East, bordering
Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Jordan, Turkey and Iran.

"If we held Iraq we felt first there would be dramatic changes of behaviour from the
Saudis," he said. "We could also manipulate the Iranians into a change of policy and finally
also lean on the Syrians.

"It wasn't a great policy. It happened to be the only policy available."

Dr Friedman said US President George W Bush faced the difficulty of explaining this
policy, particularly to the Saudis. Moves to link Saddam Hussein and al-Qaeda failed completely.

"They then fell on WMD for two reasons," he said.

"Nobody could object to WMD and it was the one thing that every intelligence agency
knew was true.

"We knew we were going to find them. And we would never have to reveal the real reasons.

"The massive intelligence failure was that everybody including Saddam thought he had
WMD. He behaved as if he had WMD. He was conned by his own people."

AAP mb/sjb

KEYWORD: IRAQ AUST STRATFOR

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